“The problem is not Russia's strength...” Edward Lucas
✨JustPeace Ukraine — Hope. Help. Donate. Pray. [2025 f 05]
From the publisher —
G’day cobbers!
In the 304th year of the Romanov empire,
in the 294th fortnight of the Russo-Ukrainian War,
and in the 171st week of Moscow’s escalation to seek the genocide of Ukraine1,
Kyiv is in Ukrainian hands.
Edward Lucas urges his fellow west Europeans to take active measures for security. The message is relevant to Oz and other polyarchies who’ve taken too much ‘peace dividend’:
✨¶ ¶ Active Measures — Edward Lucas¶ ☼☼—“The problem is not Russia's strength...” ...it's our weakness. A speech I gave recently in central London. “I am not nostalgic for some mythical golden age of transatlanticism. This has always been a difficult relationship. The US drove the hardest of bargains with this country during the fight against Hitler, and scraped our bones again in the post -war era. Anyone know when we finally finished paying off our wartime debt to the US? (2006).”
The Folly of (Machiavellian) Realism
In 428 BC, the Athenian democracy ordered the slaughter of adult males in the Lesbian city Mitilini (Mutilyny, Mytilene). The decision was rescinded, but not simply because killing people is wrong. What is the real reason cities and other earthly powers take actions? And what should motivate them?
The school of international studies going under the name ‘Realist’ sometimes deconstructs the published intentions of earthly powers: for example, they might ask whether the Athenian rescicion of the Mitilini slaughter was motivted by a fear of retaliation by others on behalf of the Mitilini. Sometimes the Realists seem to suggest that the successful excercise of power ought to move the actors.
Alexander Vindman cites, in his The Folly of Realism: How the West deceived itself about Russia and betrayed Ukraine, Benjamin Tallis’ Neo-idealism: Grand strategy for the future of the transatlantic community, where Tallis proposes eight precepts for a neo-idealist strategy:
To develop this neo-idealist agenda (Tallis 2023c) with the aim of making
it the transatlantic community’s grand strategy, along with the “Team Power”
that needs to be at the heart of our approach, I propose the following eight
precepts to build upon, advance, elaborate, refine, and augment – or challenge,
if there are better alternatives:
1. Value Primacy;
2. Military Readiness;
3. Effective Internationalism;
4. Geo-economic Realism;
5. Inclusive Dynamism;
6. Eco-modernism;
7. Democratic Futurism; and
8. Societal Cohesion.
where a mixture (critics might say ‘hodgepodge’) of moral (Value Primacy, Democratic Futurism) and material (Geo-economic Realism, Eco-modernism) precepts prevail.
In The Folly of Realism and in a Q&A with Mick Ryan, Vindman discusses Machiavellian Realist and Neo-Idealist assessments and consequences for the Russo-Ukrainian War.
¶ ¶ Alexander Vindman - Why It Matters☼ 🇺🇦☼—✨The Folly of Realism A Q&A with Alexander Vindman on his new book, "The Folly of Realism". His book explores the lead-up to the 2022 Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine, U.S. policy and the implications of the war.
It should not surprise us that Vindman and Ryan are retired army officers. Without a moral justification (apart from brute power), soldiers are open to the appelation of a late pacifist priest-friend of mine, Antony Snell SSM: “Licenced slaughterman”.
Operation Spiderweb, and after If you’ve already had plenty of Spiderweb, perhaps read Landsbergis: The security guarantees Europe needs are being made in Ukraine
¶ ¶ Alexander Vindman - Why It Matters☼ 🇺🇦☼—
Russia's "Pearl Harbor" Ukraine's Strategic Drone Attack Cripples Russia's Strategic Aviation and Nuclear Bomber Force
✨¶ ¶ CDR Commander Salamander☼☼☼—Ukrainian Drones are Tapping us on Our Shoulder ...the spider has a nasty bark...
✨¶ ¶ Diane Francis: America and the World☼☼☼—Ukraine's Daring June 2, 2025
✨✨¶ ¶ Gabrielius Landsbergis☼☼☼—The security guarantees Europe needs are being made in Ukraine
✨¶ ¶ GMan: Musings On History and Politics☼☼☼—TRANSFORMER:UKRAINE CHANGES WARFARE AGAIN Reposting: From The Analyst: Military and Strategic
✨¶ ¶ DW (Griffiths): Lights, Camera, Freedom☼☼☼—Ukraine's Mission Possible Twelve world changing, epic take-aways from "Operation Spiderweb."
✨¶ ¶ Mick (Michael) Ryan: Futura Doctrina☼ ☼ ☼—Ukraine’s Big Day: Russian Bombers Have “Justified & Deserved” Smoking Accidents An initial assessment of the impacts of Ukraine’s strikes on multiple Russian airbases for the trajectory of the war in Ukraine, and for the direction of war more broadly.
✨¶ ¶ Phillips P. O’Brien: Phillips’s Newsletter☼☼☼—WWeekend Update#135 (Update): The Ukrainians Just Pulled Off The Most Successful Operation Of The War <<Russia bombs schools and hospitals. Ukraine bombs the planes that bomb schools and hospitals.>> T' M' Conroy
✨☼¶ The Atlantic¶ ☼☼—Ukraine’s Warning to the World’s Other Military Forces - Expensive planes, tanks, and ships can be destroyed on the cheap. By Phillips Payson O’Brien: Here is a gift link if you want to have a look for free.
¶ ¶ The Cosmopolitan Globalist - Claire Berlinski☼☼☼—A Major Day in Military History: Ukraine’s Drone Blitz Today Echoes the Boldness of Israel’s 1967 Strikes
Hit hard enough To keep them off you
Ukraine's Trojan Trucks Ukraine knocked out one of the legs of Russia's nuclear triad. This is astonishing. It is also a revolution in military affairs. And it is profoundly destabilizing.
Ukraine is attacking the Crimean Bridge with submarine drones
Spin Class Case Study: Ukraine's Massive Drone Assault and Modern Strategic Comms
✨¶ ¶ Timothy Garton Ash☼☼☼—Ukraine just redefined warfare And gave Zelensky a full pack of cards
✨☼¶ UkraineAlert - Atlantic Council¶ ☼☼—After Ukraine’s innovative airbase attacks, nowhere in Russia is safe By David Kirichenko
What the Czech president knows
✨¶ ¶ H.R. McMaster: History We Don't Know☼☼☼—The New Frontier of Freedom: From the Cold War to Putin's Invasion of Ukraine <<Vladimir Putin has proven that he will not stop his aggression against Ukraine or his shadow war against Europe, the United States, and the West until he is stopped. / The outcome of the war in Ukraine will determine the future of European security and influence the conduct of other members of the Axis of Aggressors. / Europe is ready to shoulder much more responsibility for the security of the Continent, but United States leadership remains indispensable.>>
The Perfect Storm? South Korea’s Presidential Election and Implications for Relations with the Trump Administration
Speaking personally
The London Ukrainian Review is available gratis: your support is welcome.
✨¶ ¶ Larissa Babij: A Kind of Refugee☼ 🇺🇦☼—01.06.2025 / LUR on Wartime Childhood Announcing the latest issue of the London Ukrainian Review
✨¶ ¶ Margo Gontar: Stories with Margo☼ 🇺🇦☼—Meaning of 'okay' when your country's at war and are you really ever ?
JustPeace Ukraine reader Tim Low becomes AM
Tim Low AM | Governor-General of the Commonwealth of Australia
Cheers,
Martin.
+Woes of the World+
☼☼Foggy Bottom and Other Problems☼☼
✨¶ ¶ Latika Takes - Latika M Bourke☼☼☼—Chinese hackers, who targeted MPs, UK Electoral Commission, strike Czechia The cyber attack prompted a wave of support from NATO, the EU and western democracies, but Australia declined to name the culprit
+For Americans and those who wish America to prosper+
✨¶ ¶ Craig Unger <craigunger@substack.com>☼☼☼—2004 Paul Manafort's Griftapalooza Wonder how Trump's nonstop grifting will end? It helps to remember that Viktor Yanukovych, Paul Manafort's pro-Putin candidate in Ukraine, was ousted by the Orange Revolution and EuroMaidan protests.
✨¶ ¶ Dexter Roberts: Trade War (mostly PRC & USA)☼☼☼—Trade War Newsletter 262 - June 1, 2025
✨¶ ¶ Diane Francis: America and the World☼☼☼—Trump's Cryptocracy May 29, 2025
Ukraine's Daring June 2, 2025
✨¶ ¶ DW (Griffiths): Lights, Camera, Freedom☼☼☼—Ukraine's Mission Possible Twelve world changing, epic take-aways from "Operation Spiderweb."
The Greatest Poker Game in History While Vance Berated, and the U.S. President Cajoled, Zelensky Secretly Held the Winning Hand
✨¶ ¶ Francis Fukuyama: Frankly Fukuyama, Persuasion☼☼☼—The Tragedy of Elon Musk He not only squandered the opportunity to sensibly reform government. His antics have ruined the reputation of electric vehicles.
Parag Khanna on How To Measure State Capacity A new episode of the Frankly Fukuyama podcast! [audio]
A Chilling Prediction by Leo Strauss Today’s post-liberals hate liberalism but lack a coherent alternative.
✨¶ ¶ The Long Memo - William A’ Finnegan☼☼☼—A Reading from the Book of Blockchain Crypto as Cult, Grift as Gospel, and the Fall of Babylon 2.0
Iran: Deterrence has yet again failed - Now what? Iran will produce nuclear weapons. Now we have yet another madman regime with nukes. What's this mean?
Total Information Awareness, Rebooted The dots were always everywhere, now they can finally connect them.
Leopards eat Florida's Face I guess Fox News can't provide all our weather information after all
+For Australians and those who wish Oz to prosper+
Written about UK, relevant elsewhere:
¶ ¶ Eliot Wilson: The Ideas Lab☼☼☼—✨Parliamentary control of the armed forces: theory and practice The authority may be nominal in current practice, but Parliament's support for government policy and expenditure is essential and ministers should remember it
+The Holy Land, the land of Canaan+
✨¶ ¶ Jeremy Ben-Ami☼☼☼—On Unity: An Open Letter to the American Jewish Establishment Don’t Allow Calls for Unity to Shut Down Dissent and Debate
+Klaus Wits+
☼☼On War☼☼
✨¶ ¶ Comment is Freed- Lawrence & Sam Freedman☼☼☼—Whatever Happened to Arms Control?
Russia’s Demands, ©2025 William L. Brown
✨¶ ¶ Andrew Tanner: Rogue Systems Recon☼ ☼ ☼—The Modern Muscovite Army: An Adaptive Dead End Putin's ground forces are so badly deteriorated that where Ukraine's defenders can keep enough drones in the sky, they dominate the battlefield. Drone superiority is in sight.
✨¶ ¶ CDS (Centre for Defence Strategies)☼ 🇺🇦☼—Operational report blogs on the Russo-Ukrainian War here.
✨¶ ¶ Michael McFaul: McFaul's World☼☼☼—Ukraine Has Cards If Trump wants to side with strong winners, he should embrace Zelenskyy and Ukraine and drop Putin and Russia.
¶ ¶ Mick (Michael) Ryan: Futura Doctrina☼ ☼ ☼
→ pericope ‘Mick Ryan’ in the chapter +Klaus Wits+ in ✨JustPeace Ukraine - Ukraine Curt
✨¶ ¶ Mick (Michael) Ryan: Futura Doctrina☼ ☼ ☼—Russia's Summer Offensive Campaigns in Ukraine An assessment of Russia's six big campaigns in the coming months to shape the trajectory of the war, and drive political outcomes favourable to Russia. <<Ukraine and Europe are dealing with a Russian president who is probably more confident now than at any time since 2022. Putin feels he has the measure of Trump and understands how he makes decisions (impulsively), his strategic calculus (financial, not strategic or values-based) and whether he is willing to increase sanctions or support to Ukraine (not likely at this point - but I would be very, very happy to be wrong about this).>>
The Folly of Realism A Q&A with Alexander Vindman on his new book, "The Folly of Realism". His book explores the lead-up to the 2022 Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine, U.S. policy and the implications of the war.
Ukraine’s Big Day: Russian Bombers Have “Justified & Deserved” Smoking Accidents An initial assessment of the impacts of Ukraine’s strikes on multiple Russian airbases for the trajectory of the war in Ukraine, and for the direction of war more broadly.
✨¶ ¶ Minna Ålander from P’ P’ O’Brien’s Newsletter☼☼☼—European Support For Ukraine Remains Solid and Germany Is Stepping Up
✨¶ ¶ Missile Matters - Fabian Hoffmann☼☼☼—More Missile Drama: What to Make of the Latest German-Ukrainian Long-Range Strike Deal? Germany may not deliver Taurus, but will invest in Ukraine's long-range strike industry
¶ ¶ Olena Kryzhanivska & al: Ukraine’s Arms Monitor☼ 🇺🇦 ☼—Russia's Arms Trends: around-the-clock missile production and North Korean support Key developments of May, 2025
Arms Trends in Ukraine: 26 May - 01 June, 2025 AI-controlled air-defense turret, long-range missiles, and the SBU operation
¶ ¶ Olga Lautman: Unmasking Russia☼ 🇺🇦 ☼—Pax Americana: Episode 10 Recap [zoom]
Did Musk Really "Leave"? NO Unauthorized DOGE Is Still Operational and Dangerous
This Week in American Autocracy 📅 May 26–June 1, 2025 | As Trump deploys Palantir, reshapes federal hiring, and empowers extremists, the foundations of democracy are being replaced with loyalty tests and mass data tracking.
Authoritarianism 101: How It Happens—And How We Fight Back Summer Session
✨¶ ¶ Phillips P. O’Brien: Phillips’s Newsletter☼☼☼—Weekend Update #135: Has The Russian Summer Offensive Started? The New York Times Shows How Trump/Putin Control The Narrative; Trump Delays Again
Weekend Update#135 (Update): The Ukrainians Just Pulled Off The Most Successful Operation Of The War <<Russia bombs schools and hospitals. Ukraine bombs the planes that bomb schools and hospitals.>> T' M' Conroy
Trump Might Be Feeling Pressure For Protecting Putin--But Not From Those Who Matter [bit]
✨¶ ¶ Stefan Korshak's FB posts ☼ 🇺🇦☼—May 31 — Day 1191a — Sumy Incursion, Deutschland is Polite, Random Advice Day 1191b
✨☼¶ The Atlantic¶ ☼☼—Ukraine’s Warning to the World’s Other Military Forces - Expensive planes, tanks, and ships can be destroyed on the cheap. By Phillips Payson O’Brien: Here is a gift link if you want to have a look for free.
✨☼¶ Atlantic Council of United States¶ ☼☼—Welcome to the long war: Why a Ukraine deal was never realistic By Brian Whitmore
¶ ¶ The Cosmopolitan Globalist - Claire Berlinski☼☼☼—The View from the Wrong Side For this administration, weak democracies are an opportunity to be exploited, rather than a problem to be solved.
From the Right Side to the Wrong Side in Four Months Staring at the abyss from the Wrong Side
The enduring power of Turkey's ballot box A look at Turkish domestic politics since March
There will be no judicial election in Mexico
✨How Ukrainian linguists prepare the country’s spies While Ukrainian diplomats in Istanbul pretended not to understand Russian during negotiations, the Ukrainian special services exploit that knowledge in warfare. A Ukrainian linguist tells us how. Mariana Lastovyria. Claire Berlinski writes: <<If Ukraine were in NATO, it would be, by far, its most valuable member. We need Ukraine more than it needs us. Among other things, we desperately need to learn from Ukraine's expertise and experience in countering Russian influence operations. I'm watching Twitter swell with Russian propaganda today and wondering how on earth we allowed the White House, Congress, and our primary communications platform to become so penetrated and compromised by Russia--a country so decrepit that a quarter of its population has no indoor plumbing. What does it say about us that this ninth-rate Chinese gas station leads our government and our most powerful industrialists around by the nose?>>
A Major Day in Military History: Ukraine’s Drone Blitz Today Echoes the Boldness of Israel’s 1967 Strikes
Hit hard enough To keep them off you
Ukraine's Trojan Trucks Ukraine knocked out one of the legs of Russia's nuclear triad. This is astonishing. It is also a revolution in military affairs. And it is profoundly destabilizing.
Ukraine is attacking the Crimean Bridge with submarine drones
Spin Class Case Study: Ukraine's Massive Drone Assault and Modern Strategic Comms
SBU explosion damages Kerch bridge Another covert mission: the bridge between Russia and Russian-occupied Crimea has been a symbol of the war – not to mention a vital logistics link for the Russian military.
✨¶ ¶ Timothy Garton Ash☼☼☼—Ukraine just redefined warfare And gave Zelensky a full pack of cards
Poland's new president is bad news for Europe A bitterly divided country will be hamstrung just when Europe needs it most
Iran is playing a game of chicken with Trump
✨¶ ¶ Two Grumpy Old Men on 🇺🇦 ☼☼☼—On Ukraine and Putin – it’s 'TACO' on speed. According to President Trump’s promises and threats, he should by now have punished Russia and helped Ukraine. Instead, ‘Trump Always Chickens Out’ (‘TACO’) - also on Ukraine and Putin.
Today Trump made it clear that he is with Putin against Ukraine.
✨☼¶ UkraineAlert - Atlantic Council¶ ☼☼—Putin aims to destroy Ukraine and has zero interest in a compromise peace By Peter Dickinson <<To Putin, the emergence of an independent Ukraine is a symbol of Russia’s post-Soviet humiliation and a potential catalyst for the next stage in his country’s retreat from empire. According to this twisted imperial logic, if a province as quintessentially Russian as Ukraine is allowed to break away and establish itself as a modern European democracy, the entire Russian Federation will be in danger of disintegrating. Likewise, Putin is convinced that if Ukraine can be returned to its rightful place within Greater Russia, the injustice of 1991 will be undone and Russia will resume its position among the world’s Great Powers.>>
Welcome to the long war: Why a Ukraine deal was never realistic By Brian Whitmore
After Ukraine’s innovative airbase attacks, nowhere in Russia is safe By David Kirichenko
+Ex Oriente Lux+
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+Resources & Publication Details+
The Internet Encyclopedia of Ukraine is a reputable source for inquiries about Ukraine.
JustPeace Ukraine is published by the Rvrd Martin Arnold Abbe.Martincurt@gmail.com who welcomes comments & suggestions and notification of typos & errors. ☼☼ For more information about Martin, go to https://gravatar.com/martinoarnold ☼☼ You can view the whole citation list for both sections of JustPeace Ukraine at ¿TL;DR? at Wordpress →
https://martinoarnold.wordpress.com
Rationale for Just Peace Ukraine —
The Russo-Ukrainian War is illegal
The Russo-Ukrainian War is immoral
The Russo-Ukrainian War is inexpedient
In brief —
RF forces must leave Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and any other occupied territories.
RF must assist prisoners and the deported, whether children or adults, to return home.
The Kremlin must use its fossil-fuel and other loot to recompense for damages its forces have caused.
JustPeace Ukraine is published gratis. If you wish to contribute, then the amazing group Come Back Alive, which provides vital support to Ukrainian soldiers, would welcome your support.
On Sunday 2 November 1721 (22 October, Old Style), Pyotr Romanov was proclaimed Emperor.
On Thursday 27 February 2014, gunmen who had removed insignia from their uniforms occupied the Verkhovna Rada (the Parliament House) in Simferopol.
Moscow begins the Russo-Ukrainian War.
On 22 February 2022, M. Putin announced Moscow’s intention to replace the Kyiv government and to subjugate Ukraine, declaring genocidal intent.
On Thursday 24 February 2022, the RF bombarded Kyiv and many other Ukrainian sites.
Moscow escalates the Russo-Ukrainian war into genocide.
There is a saying in Ukraine: “This is the fourth year of a war in its second decade, which has been going on for three centuries.”