Outside looking in, or inside looking about
✨JustPeace Ukraine - 2025 g 24 | Stefan Korshak on the view from inside Ukraine✨JustPeace Ukraine — Hope. Help. Donate. Pray
From the publisher —
G’day cobbers!
In the 304th year of the Romanov empire,
in the 297th fortnight of Moskovia’s invasion of Ukraine
and in the 178th week of the ruscist escalation, seeking to subjugate Ukraine and the Ukrainian state,
Kyiv is in Ukrainian hands1.
Thanks for reading JustPeace Ukraine or other reports about the Russo-Ukrainian War.
Ukrainian analyst and reporter Stefan Korshak, returning to Kyiv after being abroad, began a report →
The only real perspective “outside” gave me is that, yes, really, major nations and millions of people really can have a giant conventional war in progress next door or close to next door2, and for them it’s like weather in Antarctica: Probably unpleasant for the people there, but not really having to do anything with me.
and later →
In the [United] States, aside from outliers like CNN, it seems like the war is just Trump arguing with Putin and the Ukrainians are just sitting passively. The soap opera about Melania Trump, Friedrich Merz and the Patriot missiles is getting reported in all manner of detail — yet it seems like Ukraine and the Russian air bombardment is this random, boring process where nothing is happening and people in Ukraine are sitting around living most normal lives and waiting for the Great Powers to decide their fate. Anyone actually living in Ukraine sees things very differently.
For the whole report → Day 1240 — The Blitz Revisited
The report includes a review of the strategic situation.
For boxing fans →
¶ ¶ DW (Griffiths): Lights, Camera, Freedom☼☼☼—Usyk's Message of Freedom to the World The Ukrainian Heavyweight Hetman KO's Dubois in 5th Round at Wembly Stadium
Eliot Wilson on the fallibility of governors (in particular, DJ Trump) →
«“For Trump et al, the personal is always political”: in The Sunday Times, John Bew [foreign policy adviser to Boris Johnson, Liz Truss (by virtue of standing still for 49 days), Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer and Professor of History and Foreign Policy at King’s College London] argues that we live in an age of extreme technological innovation but remain governed by fallible human beings who are motivated, sometimes overwhelmingly, by personal prejudices, instincts and foibles. This is most glaringly true of Donald Trump, but he also cites President Xi Jinping of China and President Vladimir Putin of Russia. “Established rules of conduct have eroded; ego, gut instinct and snap judgments shape our world to a disconcerting extent. The politics of personality prevail. The intricate study of the court is once again de rigueur.”
«“The Godfather Presidency: How Donald Trump’s Governing Style Mimics the Mob”: a fitting companion piece to John Bew’s article is this long read by historian, biographer and veteran journalist Sam Tanenhaus. He proposes that seeing Donald Trump as akin to a foreign autocrat is the wrong prism: the President learned his style of leadership and authority from his father, Fred Trump, and from the vicious and corrupt politics of New York in the late 1970s and early 1980s, where the influence of politicians, money and the Mafia were inextricably intertwined. In their 1981 chronicle The Permanent Government: Who Really Rules New York?, Jack Newfield and Paul Du Brul said of Donald Trump that “not yet 35 [he] is the city’s most aggressive and politically connected developer”. It is the politics of favours and obligations, of pressure and influence, and of the brutal wielding of power for effect.»
Japan joins the Pauline Hanson3 Club →
¶ ¶ Persuasion - Yascha Mounk & al.☼☼☼—The Hard Right Comes for Japan Xenophobic politics just blasted through the country’s staid consensus. Quico Toro
Cheers,
Martin.
++News & Woes++
☼Foggy Bottom, Russell Offices, Kremlin, Zhongnanhai and Other Problems☼
+Australasia and East Indies+
¶ ¶ H.R. McMaster: History We Don't Know☼☼☼—The Miracle: The Ongoing Importance of the Japan-U.S. Alliance The results of the recent upper house election in Japan combined with ongoing tariff talks with the United States will strain the Japan-U.S. relationship.
¶ ¶ Persuasion - Yascha Mounk & al.☼☼☼—The Hard Right Comes for Japan Xenophobic politics just blasted through the country’s staid consensus. Quico Toro
Relevant everywhere. (Query: Is Russian House – Melbourne part of this network? Write to me at Abbe.Martincurt at gmail.com if you know.)
¶ ¶ The Counteroffensive: Tim Mak &al’☼ 🇺🇦☼—Russian youth brainwashing [i.e. agit-prop] programs in the West Russian cultural centers operate worldwide, influencing young people with Kremlin narratives while concealing its crimes in Ukraine – and in D.C., it’s operating tax free. Yelyzaveta Tkachenko
✨☼¶ Small Wars Journal¶ ☼☼—Lessons in Finland’s Conscription Model by Julian McBride - formerly a US Marine, is a forensic anthropologist and independent journalist, born in New York.
+Europe+
Ukraine
¶ ¶ Two Grumpy Old Men on 🇺🇦 ☼☼☼—✨BLITZ INTERVIEW: Sveta L'nyavskiy - "People don't realize how deeply Ukrainians value freedom." Born in St. Petersburg, residing in Sweden, this academic, artist, business woman and volunteer works hard for .... Ukraine. «Tell us one thing you don’t think people abroad know about Ukraine – but they really should?» See footnote4 if you skip reading the interview.
✨Trump's shameful lies about Patriots to Ukraine (part 2) Donald, in front of the world media you pretended that you wanted to stop the bloodshed in Ukraine. But you knew that most words out of your mouth were lies.
✨And the Danes just keep driving cars to Ukraine! After a night in Kyiv with Russian bombs raining down, we talk to Jesper Lindholt from the Danish NGO ‘Cars for Ukraine’ – bringing cars to the frontline. "There is no 'Ukraine Fatigue' in Denmark!"
✨¶ ¶ DW (Griffiths): Lights, Camera, Freedom☼☼☼—Usyk's Message of Freedom to the World The Ukrainian Heavyweight Hetman KO's Dubois in 5th Round at Wembly Stadium
Anti-Corruption and the Three-Legged Stool of Western Opinion The Ukrainian Rada voted today to remove the independence of anti-corruption agencies. There are two sides to this story, but the optics are bad.
¶ ¶ The Counteroffensive: Tim Mak &al’☼ 🇺🇦☼—Surge of childhood diabetes due to wartime stress Young Ukrainians are increasingly being diagnosed with stress-related illnesses. Doctors and families point to the prolonged strain of bombings as a key contributing factor. Tanya Novakivska
¶ ¶ Timothy Garton Ash☼☼☼—Zelensky presents Putin with PR gift
✨¶ ¶ Researching Ukraine - Benjamin Cook☼ 🇺🇦☼—Remembering 2013, That’s the Real News If you remember the Euro Maidan uprising you know how important yesterday truly was.
☼¶ UkraineAlert - Atlantic Council¶ ☼☼—Ukraine rocked by first wartime protests amid attacks on anti-corruption agencies By Andrew D'Anieri
Zelo - Intro to his talk at Chatham House (23 Jume - 5 minutes - Thanks Dominic)President Zelenskyy speaks at Chatham House ahead of the NATO summit. - YouTube
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☼¶ Carnegie: politika, Russia Eurasia¶ ☼☼—From Accommodation to Deterrence: Can Germany Lead on Russia and Ukraine? Germany’s new government identifies the Ukraine war as the core lens and organizing principle for engaging with Russia—not the other way around. Friedrich Conradi Read more
¶ ¶ Eliot Wilson: The Ideas Lab☼☼☼—Are MPs bound by the Official Secrets Act? Robert Jenrick claims he could not speak out because he would have faced prosecution, despite parliamentary privilege: I cannot see how that could be so
Improving [UK] parliamentary scrutiny of international agreements The current scrutiny powers of Parliament over treaties and international agreements are weak and ineffective: legislating for parliamentary consent would be a step forward
¶ ¶ Gabrielius Landsbergis☼☼☼—The End of the Enlargement Dream? Getting real about European enlargement means more than a “very concerned” tweet once in a while.
¶ ¶ Nick Cohen: Writing from London☼☼☼—How the right abandoned law and order The Sunday column on the incendiary power of the “fascisphere”
¶ ¶ The Debatable Land - Alex Massie☼☼☼—The Mess We're In How Britain became ungovernable and, perhaps, unfixable.
+USA and the Americas+
¶ ¶ Daniel W. Drezner: Drezner’s World☼☼☼—Six Months Of Consequential Fascism Trump II is consequential -- and not in a good way.
The End of Foreign Policy Ideas? LOL nothing matters in the Ideas Industry right now.
¶ ¶ Diane Francis: America and the World☼☼☼—Trump's War Donald Trump finally admitted on July 14 that Vladimir Putin had strung him along
The Donroe Doctrine July 21, 2025
¶ ¶ DW (Griffiths): Lights, Camera, Freedom☼☼☼—Why Gabbard Just Accused Obama of Crimes Gabbard breaks with DNI protocol to accuse a past president of crimes. She may have just secured her job.
¶ ¶ Kasparov's Next Move☼☼☼—Epstein Files: What Trump’s Opponents Need to Know Donald Trump and his allies either fed a baseless conspiracy theory about Jeffrey Epstein. Or they’re defending a global pedophile ring. Any way you slice it, the president doesn’t look good. Uriel Epshtein
Colbert Canceled: Press Freedom Will Go Out With a Pen Stroke, Not a Bang Americans have difficulty seeing authoritarianism if it isn’t in their faces
It’s All Fun and Games Until Trump Has Obama Arrested Then it’s authoritarianism.
Disagreeing With Readers About Colbert, Trump, and Obama Plus, a question for you, the readers!
¶ ¶ Matt Osborne: Polemology Positions & Osborne Ink☼☼☼—Nancy Pelosi's Attack On Trump's Alcatraz Reopen Is Her Stupidest Initiative Yet
How Trump Derangement Sydrome Is Making Partisan Democrats Sick With Anxiety Hyperpartisanship and mental health
If Stephen Colbert's Show Lost $40-50 Million A Year Then No Wonder It's Gone Do not blame Donald Trump for failed partisan propagandists
¶ ¶ Michael McFaul: McFaul's World☼☼☼—Finally, Trump Seems to Get Putin I hope it lasts and will have enduring policy consequences. «My final worry is that an unpredictable Trump will simply change his mind. … // Nonetheless, his rhetoric and policy toward Russia is much better today than it was over the previous decade. Let’s celebrate the win this week, and hope for even more in the coming months.»
¶ ¶ Open Letters - Anne Applebaum☼☼☼—Autocracy in America, continued Also, my wildflower garden is blooming
¶ ¶ Persuasion - Yascha Mounk & al.☼☼☼—Trump Is Down, But Not Out What the polls tell us about Epstein, immigration, and the economy. Michael Baharaeen
¶ ¶ The Cosmopolitan Globalist - Claire Berlinski☼☼☼—✨We're getting the social media crisis wrong The bigger problem isn't disinformation. It's degraded democratic publics Henry Farrell «There are sharp limits to individual human cognition, but we have invented collective means to think better together. Brad DeLong has a nice phrase for the specific advantage of the human species - “anthology intelligence” - which captures this.»
America's Internal Brain Drain Brink Lindsey
The MechaHitler Reich PART I: Grok's Big Adventure
¶ ¶ The Long Memo - William A’ Finnegan☼☼☼—See B.S.: The fall of independent media You don't cancel a profitable show with high ratings. Period.
¶ ¶ The UnPopulist - Shikha Dalmia &al’☼☼☼—America Needs a Bold Constitutional Reconstruction Agenda to Tame Presidential Powers Fundamental flaws in our parliamentary rules, courts, and electoral system made our country vulnerable to an authoritarian takeover Andy Craig
The Conservative Supreme Court’s Decision Allowing Deportations to Third Countries Should Shock the Conscience of Americans The fate that likely awaits those deported to South Sudan violates the Constitution’s prohibition against cruel and unusual punishment Linda Chavez
¶ ¶ Timothy Garton Ash☼☼☼—Türkiye - geopolitical opportunity knocks
Britain is muddling through... ... but with no idea where it's heading.
¶ ¶ Yascha Mounk☼☼☼—Why Trump Hates Europe The administration’s Europhobia has its roots in spurned love.
Isaac Saul on Dialogue and Disagreement Yascha Mounk and Isaac Saul also discuss what recent rulings reveal about the nature of the Supreme Court.
+Canaan and neighbouring lands+
¶ ¶ Alexander McKeever: This Week in Northern Syria☼☼☼—This Week in Northern Syria [26.2025] July 9 - 15: Two meetings in Damascus, certificate exams end, Russian movements around al-Qamishli, and more...
¶ ¶ Arthur Snell: Not all doom☼☼☼—"We are witnessing genocide in Gaza" [audi-vis]
¶ ¶ Jeremy Ben-Ami: Word on the Street☼☼☼—Silence is Complicity Maybe it's time to put some of the energy we expend arguing over words in Israel-Palestine discourse – antisemitism, genocide, intifada – into discussing what's actually happening.
¶ ¶ Konstantin Kisin <konstantinkisin@substack.com>☼☼☼—My Honest Opinion About Israel [audivis]
מִפְּנֵי תִקּוּן הָעוֹלָם
+Zhongnanhai & Moskovia, and neighbouring lands+
☼¶ Carnegie: politika, Russia Eurasia¶ ☼☼—Russia’s War Against Ukraine Has Seen an Explosion in HIV Rates HIV is decreasing across the world—except in Russia. The reasons are purely political. Andrey Shashkov. Read more
¶ ¶ Craig Unger <craigunger@substack.com>☼☼☼—From Russia (to Jeffrey), with Love The Epstein saga is even more interesting when you look at the Russian women who helped run his operation. Here's a look at Svetlana Pozhidaeva.
¶ ¶ Mikhail Zygar: The Last Pioneer☼☼☼—Strike on Moscow? Adorable Trump’s tough talk gets a shrug in the Kremlin
¶ ¶ Monique Camarra: EuroFile☼☼Madi Kapparov: Weekly Economic Update on Russia onique Camarra and Madi Kapparov
United24: It's not what it seemed Gen Z romanticizes the Soviet Union as “vibey,” forgetting it was a regime of repression, poverty, and silence.
Madi Kapparov: Weekly Economic Update on Russia 22 July Monique Camarra and Madi Kapparov
☼¶ Project Syndicate¶ ☼☼—Glory to Stalin Nina L. Khrushcheva
Russia’s communist party recently asserted that, in Stalin’s “deeds and works,” Russians can seek “answers to the fateful challenges of our time.” But Vladimir Putin has been rehabilitating Stalin for more than two decades – and reviving some of the worst elements of the Soviet era in the process.
☼¶ Riddle Russia¶ ☼☼—Patriots are in control Nicholas Trickett with the economic summary of the week (July 14−17)
+Africa and Otherwise+
☼¶ First Things¶ ☼☼—The Perils of Polarization by George Weigel
☼¶ Lowy Institute: The Interpreter¶ ☼☼—“Daddy” diplomacy: The politics of obsequiousness Hugh Piper 23/7/25 Flattering Trump may win short-term favour only to create a dynamic that will weaken future negotiating positions. Read more.
+Klaus Wits+
☼☼On War☼☼
¶ ¶ Andrew Tanner: Rogue Systems Recon☼ ☼ ☼—Winning The Drone Race: Key To Ukraine's Counteroffensive Hopes Drone technology is evolving by leaps and bounds, and while Ukraine holds the advantage in most dimensions now, there are no guarantees. Any counteroffensive has to achieve drone superiority.
✨¶ ¶ CDS (Centre for Defence Strategies, security think tank)☼ 🇺🇦☼—Operational report blogs on the Russo-Ukrainian War here.
¶ ¶ Comment is Freed - Lawrence & Sam Freedman☼☼☼—Obliteration or Degradation What difference did the Israeli and US strikes make to Iran’s nuclear capabilities? [bit]
☼¶ CSIS (Center for Strategic & International Studies)¶ ☼☼—Unleashing U.S. Military Drone Dominance: What the United States Can Learn from Ukraine. Report by Kateryna Bondar
¶ ¶ GMan: Musings On History and Politics☼☼☼—UKRAINE WILL WIN Reposting: From The Analyst: Military and Strategic
THE ANGLO-GERMAN DEFENCE PACT Reposting: From The Analyst: Military and Strategic
¶ ¶ Joe Cirincione: Strategy & History☼☼☼—What We Don't Talk About When We Talk About Nuclear Weapons. Eighty years into the Nuclear Age, certain subjects are off limits in nuclear security conferences
✨¶ ¶ Michael (Mick) Ryan: Futura Doctrina☼ ☼ ☼—From Peace to War: Preparing to Adapt Effective adaptation from peace to war can have a major influence on the trajectory of a conflict. Wars can be won or lost depending on the quality of decision-making in this rapid adaptation phase.
The Big Five - 20 July edition My regular update on global conflicting & confrontation. This week: Ukraine's new government, Russia's 'big push' on the ground and in the air, and major military exercises in Taiwan and Australia.
1. Is China Ready for War? (pay-wall)
2. Ukraine’s Drone Industrial Complex - Report by Kateryna Bondar
3. The New Defence of Japan Paper
4. The Air War Over Iran
5. Finland’s Conscription Lessons
Putin and Strategic Decision-Making My latest article published by the Lowy Institute explores Putin, strategy and the flaws in Putin's long-term decision-making. → Why Putin keeps making the same Ukraine mistakes Mick Ryan 22/7/25 Moscow’s aerial escalation after Trump’s peace ultimatum reveals the flaws of authoritarian decision-making.
¶ ¶ Olena Kryzhanivska & al: Ukraine’s Arms Monitor☼ 🇺🇦 ☼—Stopping Shaheds: Ukraine’s Solutions Seven solutions to Shahed problem in Ukraine
Arms Trends in Ukraine: 14 July - 20 July, 2025 ‘Test in Ukraine’ initiative, additional Patriots, and growing Ukraine–U.S. cooperation
TerMIT Drone and the Future of Unmanned Ground Vehicles in Ukraine Unmanned ground vehicle TerMIT
¶ ¶ Pegasus Research Substack - Thomas Leckwold☼☼☼—Vested Interests in Prolonging the Ukraine War North Korea and China see strategic advantage in the war continuing
¶ ¶ Phillips P. O’Brien: Phillips’s Newsletter☼☼☼— Weekend Update #142
¶ ¶ Researching Ukraine - Benjamin Cook☼ 🇺🇦☼—Russia’s Dilemma in Ukraine: A Nuclear Strike Won’t End It Why Ukraine Isn’t Afraid of Russian Nukes (And you shouldn't be either.)
Russian Arrogance = Ukrainian Opportunity It's just a matter of time.
¶ ¶ Sarcastosaurus (Tom Cooper)☼☼☼—Phase Zero: China’s Hybrid War on the West Benjamin Cook
Don's Weekly, 21 July 2025: Part 1 by Donald Hill (intro by Tom Cooper) Part 2 - Part 3 (Russia & Diplomacy) - Part 4 (Equipment & Magyar) «Brovdi is in charge of all of Ukraine’s drone operations but he is just a major, signifying that he wasn’t in the military before 2022. When he left his drone regiment, the person who replaced him was just a second lieutenant (instead of a colonel). Before the war, that lieutenant was training 2,000 children in tae kwan do and now he’s running a regiment with 2,000 personnel.»
✨¶ ¶ Stefan Korshak's FB posts ☼ 🇺🇦☼—July 18 — Day 1240 — The Blitz Revisited, Drone and Missile Data, Military Intelligence in the Pentagon
July 18 — Day 1240 — continued
☼¶ Small Wars Journal¶ ☼☼—Lessons in Finland’s Conscription Model by Julian McBride - formerly a US Marine, is a forensic anthropologist and independent journalist, born in New York.
¶ ¶ Tenzer Strategics - Nicolas Tenzer☼☼☼—Can We Talk About an Axis Between the People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation? Impossible Alliance, Unlikely Breakup, Limited Distance [bit]
¶ ¶ The Military Analyst☼☼☼—UKRAINE WILL WIN
THE ANGLO-GERMAN DEFENCE PACT
✨☼¶ UkraineAlert - Atlantic Council¶ ☼☼—A Western-funded drone surge could end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine By Mark Boris Andrijanič - Andrijanič is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, a member of the Governing Board of the European Institute of Innovation and Technology, and a former Minister for Digital Transformation of Slovenia.
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+Resources & Publication Details+
The Internet Encyclopedia of Ukraine is a reputable source for inquiries about Ukraine.
JustPeace Ukraine is published by Fr Martin (Abbe.Martincurt@gmail.com) who welcomes comments & suggestions and notification of typos & errors.
Martin is a Ukrainian Catholic priest. ‘What’s that?’ → The Christian church in Ukraine AD 100 - 1795: a potted history with special reference to the Ukrainian and Ruthenian Catholic churches.
’Who’s Martin? → https://gravatar.com/martinoarnold
Rationale for Just Peace Ukraine —
The Russo-Ukrainian War is illegal
The Russo-Ukrainian War is immoral
The Russo-Ukrainian War is inexpedient
In brief —
RF forces must leave Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and any other occupied territories.
RF must assist prisoners and the deported, whether children or adults, to return home.
The Kremlin must use its fossil-fuel and other loot to recompense for damages its forces have caused.
JustPeace Ukraine is published gratis. If you wish to contribute, the amazing group Come Back Alive, which provides vital support to Ukrainian soldiers, welcomes your support.
On Sunday 2 November 1721 (22 October, Old Style), Pyotr Romanov was proclaimed Emperor.
On Thursday 27 February 2014, gunmen who had removed insignia from their uniforms occupied the Verkhovna Rada (the Parliament House) in Simferopol.
Moscow begins the Russo-Ukrainian War.
On 22 February 2022, M. Putin announced Moscow’s intention to replace the Kyiv government and to subjugate Ukraine, declaring genocidal intent.
On Thursday 24 February 2022, the RF bombarded Kyiv and many other Ukrainian sites.
Moscow escalates the Russo-Ukrainian war into genocide; this is often described in English as ‘the full-scale invasion’.
There is a saying in Ukraine: “This is the fourth year of a war in its second decade, which has been going on for three centuries.”
Synne is behovabil, but al shal be wel & al shal be wel & al manner of thyng shal be wele.— Julian of Norwich: Revelations of Divine Love (Chapter 27)
«This is a real, ongoing, massed bombardment of Ukraine by Russia, it is a major military operation on a scale not seen since the Balkan Wars, and I would argue Russia attacks on Ukraine right now are roughly comparable to Nazi Germany’s air blitz against southern Britain in 1940–41.»
A ‘the-blacks-and-the-immigrants-should-be-put-in-their-place’ from Queensland, forestalled by an aggresive campaign, mounted by Tony Abbott, to move most of her support to the Liberal-National (conservative) coalition.
One thing people abroad often don’t know is how incredibly diverse Ukraine is. It’s not just a country with one culture, language, or history. Every region has its traditions, music, food, dialects, and stories. You can drive a few hours and feel like you’re in a completely different cultural world – from the multicultural port city vibe of Odesa, to the Central European feel of Lviv, to the vast open steppe lands of the East.
People also don’t always realise how deeply Ukrainians value freedom. It’s not an abstract concept for them; it’s woven into their identity and history, as this nation has always elected its own rules and never had a king! Even under Soviet rule, through famine, repression, and now war, Ukrainians have always found ways to keep their language, art, and spirit alive. That fierce love of freedom is what drives their fight today, and I think the world needs to understand that this isn’t just a political conflict – it’s about a nation protecting who they are at the deepest level.