`4g08` Has Russia Blown its 2024 Opportunity in Ukraine? — Mick Ryan
Just Peace Ukraine (Martin Curt 2024 g 08) Hope. Help. Donate. Pray.
A letter from the publisher —
G’day cobbers!
In the 303rd year of Pyotr Romanov's empire, in the 541st week of Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, and on the 868th day of the Russo-Ukrainian War, Kyiv is in Ukrainian hands.
Mick Ryan, in the midst of conflicting-but-sometimes-depressing news for anti-imperialists, has assessed the RF’s overall performance and prospects :—
Has Russia Blown its 2024 Opportunity in Ukraine? Russia may never get an another opportunity like the past six months. An updated assessment of Russia’s 2024 offensives.
Unless a Trump victory in November results in a drastic reduction in U.S. support for Ukraine, Russia is unlikely to be gifted another chance like the one it has had in the past six months to make progress in the war. European defence industrial capacity is increasing, and its political resolution to resist Russia is strengthening. Ukrainian defence production is increasing. But then, Russian defence production has also exceeded the expectations of most western analysts. Whether this can be continued indefinitely is another question.
Recent military failures in Ukraine and the Middle East shed light on the future of warfare while reaffirming the age-old truth that, in conflict, little is ever truly new.
Sarcastosaurus (Tom Cooper) animadverts on Austria’s exploitation of neutrality :—
Margaret Simons, for the Guardian, reflects on the nihilism of Julian Assange :—
Debating whether Julian Assange is a journalist is irrelevant. He changed journalism forever But he didn’t foresee that lies, conspiracy theories and misinformation would ride the internet as easily as truth and transparency Margaret Simons
Staff at the Kyiv Post pay tribute to a great Victorian Ukrainian :—
Stefan Romaniw, ‘Towering Figure’ of Ukrainian Diaspora, Passes Away In passing, the tireless leader and community activist has been saluted by Australia’s Prime Minister, former prime ministers, and many other dignitaries.
Stefan’s funeral is at 10 a.m. on Friday 12 July at St Peter and Paul Cathedral, at the corner of Canning and Dryburgh Streets, North Melbourne.
Anne Applebaum, for the Atlantic, writes persuasively about US parliamentary politics (for those of us who, as one of the hard-working staff puts it, still have a fuck to give about the circus) :—
Time to Roll the Dice Biden’s party doesn’t need to sleepwalk into a catastrophe. By Anne Applebaum
And Eliot Wilson asks for a ‘rectification of terms’ in parliamentary politics, a rectification as necessary in Queensland as in Britain :—
In defence of "doctrine": why ideas matter Sir Keir Starmer has promised a government "unburdened by doctrine", but that doctrine is just a pejorative word for ideas, and ideas are vital in politics
Cheers,
Martin.
☼☼
☼☼
+... and in the Left corner ...+
(For everyone, but perhaps of special interest to Social Democrats, Bolshevik imperialists, and other lefties)
Listed below are some older essays which may be of interest to the anti-imperialist left and which we hope the imperialist and ‘what-aboutist’ left will read :—
“If we didn’t join the armed forces, the left in Ukraine would cease to exist,” says Taras Bilous 2024 d 17
A letter to the Western Left from Kyiv The ‘anti-imperialism of idiots’ meant people turned a blind eye to Russia’s actions Taras Bilous 2022 b 25
Ukrainian Socialists Have A Bone To Pick With Lefties In The West Leftists in Western countries do not understand Ukraine’s complicated relationship with nonproliferation and disarmament. By Terrell Jermaine Starr 2023 h 07
Addressing left-wing arguments against supporting Ukraine by Alex Jensen 2023 h 29
Putin’s new Ukraine essay reveals imperial ambitions by Peter Dickinson 2021 g 15
My Ukraine A personal reflection on a nation's dream of independence and the nightmare Vladimir Putin has visited upon it. Chrystia Freeland ©Reddit May 12, 2015
+Wayfarers' Watch+
(For everyone, but especially for people interested in religion and theology)
Living in the Body: Disability as an Opportunity for Welcoming the Other | Життя в тілі: інвалідність як нагода прийняти іншого | Summer School of Theology 2024 | July 29 - August 3 | 14:00 - 19:30 p.m. EEST Kyiv time | Online, Zoom
+Greensleeves+
(On the world-room and its conservation, but also a magazine of interesting matters which don’t fit into the earlier sections)
☼¶ ☼After Babel &c. (Jon Haidt, Jean Twenge & al.)
☼How Schools Can Help End The Phone-Based Childhood Five lessons for secular schools, from our experience in Jewish Day Schools. Caroline Bryk
+Ukrainian Helsinki Human Rights Union+
(Mostly material from the Kharkiv Human Rights Protection Group)
Head of Russian Investigative Committee demands the death penalty in Russia and occupied Ukraine 02.07.2024 Aleksandr Bastrykin and Russia’s Investigative Committee have been using torture to fabricate preposterous charges against Ukrainians since 2014, making his call for the death penalty chilling
Pensioner jailed in Russian-occupied Crimea for expressing support for Ukraine in a shop 03.07.2024
Ukrainian POW wounded, but survives after the Russians gun down four of his comrades after they surrendered 05.07.2024
More sentences passed, one escalated for studying the Bible in Russian-occupied Crimea
+Toots+
ChrisO_wiki @ChrisO_wiki@mastodon.social
1/ Badly wounded Russian soldiers, some on crutches, are being sent to fight in Ukraine. Russian milbloggers say it is because of huge losses and shortages of personnel, as well as bureaucratic mismanagement and the military's culture of lying to superiors. …
1/ Russian soldiers are still being sent to fight in Ukraine with broken legs, despite protests from Russian milbloggers. Meanwhile, injured soldiers who recorded a video last week have had their crutches taken away or have been sent to a torture camp.
Russian battle scooters are officially a thing! A Ukrainian drone spotted this. (See https://mastodon.social/@ChrisO_wiki/112715687961441423 for more.)
1/ Adding another perspective to The Economist's recent reporting on Russian casualties in Ukraine (see thread on X below), the Russian milblogger 'Vault 8' comments that almost everyone he knows who fought in Ukraine has been killed or wounded. https://x.com/SydneyFreedberg/status/1
+ Pi Jaws &c.+
No right job
Henri J. M. Nouwen
There is no such thing as the right place, the right job, the right calling or ministry. I can be happy or unhappy in all situations. I am sure of it, because I have been. I have felt distraught and joyful in situations of abundance as well as poverty, in situations of popularity and anonymity, in situations of success and failure. Success comes from strength, stress, and human effort.
Fruitfulness is something else entirely.
+ Laughter, the best Medicine+
Indian man to sue parents for giving birth to him
By Geeta Pandey, BBC News, Delhi · 7 February 2019
Mumbai businessman Raphael Samuel told the BBC that it's wrong to bring children into the world because they then have to put up with lifelong suffering.
Mr Samuel, of course, understands that our consent can't be sought before we are born, but insists that "it was not our decision to be born".
So as we didn't ask to be born, we should be paid for the rest of our lives to live, he argues.
A demand like this could cause a rift within any family, but Mr Samuel says he gets along very well with his parents (both of whom are lawyers) and they appear to be dealing with it with a lot of humour.
=
Should we seek compromise with a departure from the catholic consensus?
July 4, 2024 by Ian Paul
===
+Publication Details+
Just Peace Ukraine is published by the Rvrd Martin Arnold
Abbe.Martincurt@gmail.com
who welcomes comments & suggestions and notification of typos.
For more information about Martin, go to
https://gravatar.com/martinoarnold
*_* Хай живе вільна Україна *_* L’Ukraine a toujours aspiré à être libre - Voltaire *_* Няхай жыве вольная Украіна *_* Larga vida a Ucrania libre *_* Да здравствует свободная Украина *_* Long live free Ukraine *_* 自由乌克兰万岁 *_* Bandera rossonera la trionferà!
*_* تحيا أوكرانيا حرة *_*
The rationale for Just Peace Ukraine is being revised. A new improved version will be unveiled at our earliest convenience. We expect that the new rationale will have headings —
The Russo-Ukrainian War is illegal
The Russo-Ukrainian War is immoral
The Russo-Ukrainian War is inexpedient
If you’d like to send in your own thoughts for any or all of these headings — or other material — feel free. We’ve been thinking about the rationale for so long that we find it hard to criticize our own prose.
In brief —
RF forces must leave Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and any other occupied territories. It must assist prisoners and the deported, whether children or adults, to return home. The Kremlin must use its fossil-fuel and other loot to recompense for damages its forces have caused.
+Tl;dr+
Samvydav Review for Just Peace Ukraine
Scores of Substack and similar samvydav sites sifted by the strenuous staff at Just Peace Ukraine.
Some interesting or worthy items are marked with some combination of the banner with the strange device [|εξηλσιορ*ψ|] — ψ, the Greek letter ‘psi’, may denote matter especially relevant to the Russo-Ukrainian War and anti-imperialism. (Mnemonic: ‘psi’ has the form of a trident, which is an ancient symbol for Ukrainian government. The symbol was used in the Greek settlements on the Black Sea (or Psi). Tim Snyder reminds us that Greeks and Jews have the longest recorded settlements in Ukraine, and capital psi Ψ looks like an infant menorah.)
☼¶ ☼Adam Kinzinger
☼Reclaiming the Fourth: Understanding the True Spirit of Independence Day (It's not what the Trumpists believe)
☼¶ ☼Adam Tooze
America's rates shock. Nigeria's petrol worries & how Trump almost blew up NATO.
☼¶ ☼After Babel &c. (Jon Haidt, Jean Twenge & al.)
☼How Schools Can Help End The Phone-Based Childhood Five lessons for secular schools, from our experience in Jewish Day Schools. Caroline Bryk
☼¶ ☼Anne Applebaum
☼Three states matter. Choose one of their governors Biden's party does not need to sleepwalk into catastrophe [|εξηλσιορ*ψ|]
☼¶ ☼Comment is Freed (Sam & Lawrence Freedman)
☼¶ ☼the Counteroffensive (Tim Mak &c.)
☼Ukraine implications for U.K. Labour’s Landslide Election Here’s what incoming PM Keir Starmer has said about the United Kingdom’s position on Ukraine if his party were to be elected to power. And what about French elections this weekend? Alessandra Hay and Tim Mak
The original prophet of Taiwanese independence As China threatens death penalty for Taiwan independence advocates, here's the untold story of a man persecuted for these beliefs; the sacrifices he made, including exile & estrangement from his wife. Elaine Lin [|εξηλσιορ*ψ|]
☼¶ ☼Cosmopolitan Globalist (Claire Berlinski)
☼¶ ☼Daniel W. Drezner
☼The Codger-in Chief In the wake of last Thursday's debate, Biden's staffers and supporters are starting to paint a picture. As the curator of the Toddler-in-Chief thread, this picture is disturbing.
☼¶ ☼Diane Francis
☼Migration Mess June 24, 2024
Putin's Third Front June 27, 2024
☼¶ ☼Eliot Wilson
☼General Election '24: Northern Ireland (4) Stepping away from the hurly burly of the campaign for a moment, today is the anniversary of the first day of the Battle of the Somme, resonant in Unionist history
A collection of political insults Politics is a contact sport and participants sometimes let loose with invective: the best insults are clever, shocking and/or contain an uncomfortable element of truth
Will Starmer control cabinet numbers? Since 2007 the size of the cabinet has ballooned to a peak of 37 under the Conservative/Liberal Democrat coalition: it should come down to around 22
Sunday round-up 7 July 2024 A new government, the anniversary of sliced bread and birthday greetings to Ringo Starr, Michael Howard and Bill Oddie
In defence of "doctrine": why ideas matter Sir Keir Starmer has promised a government "unburdened by doctrine", but that doctrine is just a pejorative word for ideas, and ideas are vital in politics [|εξηλσιορ*ψ|]
☼¶ ☼Gordian Knot (Jack Devanney & al.)
☼Age of Invention: The Dutch Salten Age Part III of the Salt Series Anton Howes
☼¶ ☼the brethren Hart (Addison Hodges, David Bentley & Fr Robert)
☼
☼¶ ☼Jennifer Bilek
☼
☼¶ ☼Kateryna Babinka (An Ukrainian Writer in London)
☼An Unbelievable Week Making this choice you die anyway, but only deeply inside, and so not so many people can guess that you are not alive anymore.
☼¶ ☼Katja Hoyer
☼
☼¶ ☼the Liberal Patriot
☼
☼¶ ☼Maksym Eristavi
☼
☼¶ ☼Mary Harrington — Reactionary Feminist
☼Guest post: The Romantic Swifties Lois McLatchie Miller on the millennials longing for Taylor's "happy ever after" Mary Harrington and TRADical - with Calum & Lois
☼¶ ☼Mathworlds (Dan Meyer)
☼Colin Campbell Teaches the 95% Welcome to summer school for teachers & education technologists.
☼¶ ☼Michaels — Mick Ryan, Michael McFaul
☼Leadership in Modern War We must prepare for other future conflicts by learning the many lessons about leadership offered by the ongoing war in Ukraine. Part One of a two-part article. [|εξηλσιορ*ψ|]
Leadership Lessons from Ukraine Part two of my special examination of the key lessons about modern leadership from the war in Ukraine. In this final part, strategic and combat leadership are the focus. [|εξηλσιορ*ψ|]
Books in the Background What are those books on the shelf behind me?
Has Russia Blown its 2024 Opportunity in Ukraine? Russia may never get an another opportunity like the past six months. An updated assessment of Russia’s 2024 offensives. [|εξηλσιορ*ψ|]
Unless a Trump victory in November results in a drastic reduction in U.S. support for Ukraine, Russia is unlikely to be gifted another chance like the one it has had in the past six months to make progress in the war. European defence industrial capacity is increasing, and its political resolution to resist Russia is strengthening. Ukrainian defence production is increasing. But then, Russian defence production has also exceeded the expectations of most western analysts. Whether this can be continued indefinitely is another question.
The Misfortunes of War My new article at Engelsberg Ideas explores failure in 21st century military institutions.
Influences on the Trajectory of the War in Ukraine Thinking about how different events beyond Ukraine will have an impact on the direction of the war over the coming year.
_The Interpreter_ (Lowy Institute) Four key influences on the evolution of the Ukraine War in 2025 Ukraine, Russia and NATO are already considering their strategy for the military campaigns of 2025.
The Big Five - 7 July edition A weekly guide to readings on modern war and adapting to win
The Paramount Importance of Allies My BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front) from 10 days in South Korea and Japan. Michael McFaul
☼¶ ☼Persuasion (Yascha Mounk & al.)
☼The Night … A grotesque spectacle that must shock Democrats, Quico Toro and Sam Kahn
☼¶ ☼Phillips P. O’Brien
☼Weekend Update #88: Ukraine and NATO The Intellectual Poverty of Realism: Biden, NATO and Ukraine; A few more Russian Micro-Advances [|εξηλσιορ*ψ|]
☼¶ ☼the Radicalist (DJ Volodzko)
☼
☼¶ ☼Sarcastosaurus (Tom Cooper)
☼Don's Weekly, 24 June 2024: Part 2 by Donald Hill
Tu Felix Austria [|εξηλσιορ*ψ|]
Ukraine War, 5 July 2024: Fish roots from the Head, Part 1
Ukraine War, 7 July 2024 ....sigh…
☼¶ ☼Stephen Bradford Long and Stephen Weller
☼Out of the depths A health update Stephen Bradford Long
☼¶ ☼Szego Unplugged (Julie Szego)
☼
☼¶ ☼fr Thomas Plant
☼
☼¶ ☼Timothys: Snyder, Garton Ash
☼Who is Britain's next Prime Minister? His name is Keir Starmer. But who is he really?
☼¶ ☼the UnPopulist (Aaron Ross Powell)
☼
☼¶ ☼Zeitgeist (Katja Hoyer)
☼Milk, Honey, Herbs and Water: The Weird and Wonderful World of German Healing
And also
The IQ Shredder Is Good, Actually Our would-be eugenicist overlords are optimising for the wrong traits Mary Harrington
UKRAINE LACKS LABOR FORCE Iuliia Mendel Weekly Updates [|εξηλσιορ*ψ|]
France on the brink By Arun on June 27, 2024
Kenyan Protests, Part One: The political education of President William Ruto Lessons on the difficulties of governing during turbulent economic times after campaigning as an anti-establishment populist. Ken Opalo
Are we stupid, selfish children stumbling through a world we are too brainwashed by infantile, corporate dross to understand? Quite possibly we are
The British right is about experience its worst defeat - ever
Do you ignore the deaths of Jews or of Palestinians? Close your eyes and pick a side
Nick Cohen
Autonomy and the Automaton Ernst Jünger, mechanistic tyranny, the conquest of fear, and true individual freedom N.S. Lyons
How Americans Mastered the Indirect Fire Battle and Became a Global Superpower A reposted 4th of July book review.
'Psychic Dictatorship': The New Age Cult That Worships The American Flag And spawned the early UFO cults
Matt Osborne
The Monthly Salon: July If voting changed anything, they'd abolish it Paul Kingsnorth